59-year-old Sergei Tolstov starts at the Institute of World History. Acting Head, Department of Transatlantic Studies.
In the hallway – two policemen. The third is sitting in a large hall for meetings. When we see, takes a rubber baton from his chair and goes into the corridor. Something gets out of the jacket, which chevron “police.”
– When we wanted to take the room, then led by the window 200 refugees from Donbass to impress. We reflected. But now there is always the police – says Sergey Valerianovich.
The Institute is located in the city center near the cathedral. Across the street lives mayor Vitali Klitschko.
In the condition of Ukraine?
– We have a lot of threats, foreign and domestic.
Inside the stout woman comes in two T-shirts with a broom. Starts a sweep at the door. Cloth wipes tables, black piano in the corner. Examines whether watered pots in the windows.
– Now we have changed the structure of the economy – continues Tolstov. – Through the Donbass industrial production fell about a quarter. Money is part of the International Monetary Fund are used to maintain foreign reserves and in part – to pay off the deficit. Plane is bypass air space of Ukraine, investors ignore our side. No one wants to invest. Those foreigners who have something here, make sure that everything could easily deduce where to start a landslide.
When this wait?
– I had a project with some Western structures to identify investment opportunities in Ukraine. It was completed in early February this year, when realized that the world is not over and the country enters into a tailspin. The volume of foreign reserves decrease. When will reduce to $ 12 billion, it will be critical. Recently said that they have already 12.5 billion.
The government understands that we must take the situation under control and remove the country from the corkscrew?
– Now the authorities are made up of several groups. There are two official centers – Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk with Turchynov and one informal – billionaire Kolomoysky. They create potential differences.
Poroshenko came with the slogan of peace, stop aggression, settlement of internal conflicts. This is the key to restoring positive development. If there is peace, the prospect of the country – at risk.
– You nadolho here? We polchasa through hotym hold a meeting of trade union – look to the gray-haired man.
– Togda We go to Library – Tolstov answered, and continues: – Position Poroshenko clear – peace is a core value and purpose in the present situation. This idea was publicized before and during the NATO summit.
Instead of Yatsenyuk Turchynov – Party War. Their rhetoric influenced the results of the parliamentary elections because of party lists Poroshenko lost them. This group comes from the fact that peace can only be due to external factors. When the US and the EU will force Russia to stop the war. Putin is not, and was not afraid of sanctions. Further economic losses, he is not afraid. It is acceptable for a loss. Putin joined the line. As Napoleon once executed Duke Enhiyenskoho and this showed European monarchies, not adhere to the rules. What to expect from him anything. Limit Putin was Donbass and attack Russian troops unmarked. Now Putin deceive Europe and the United States when a serious look and smile proves that Moscow to events in the Donbas not involved. Western leaders, for it was the signal: possible new world war.
To look to the room people welcome. Turns out two of the three lamps:
– I have эkonomyey zanymayus. Myself Leave one light bulb.
Go to the small room behind the wall. This – the library. It is very cold in here. Sitting blond librarian 60 years.
What is the third line center of influence – Kolomoysky?
– The head of the oligarchic group that after the Maidan has strengthened its position. In the first place he – business interests. Next – Administrative effect. In addition to the Dnipropetrovsk region in Kolomoyskogo strong position in Volhynia in Odessa, Kiev. Now it is closer to Yatsenyuk – Turchynov.
Which of these three groups is the strongest?
– Following the elections, it is clear that the main administrative resources will Yatsenyuk.
Powers of the President under the Constitution – less. Impact on government – is negligible. Staff reserve – is small. Not only people who can be trusted.
Poroshenko tried to change the power and make it to the group dominated the governing coalition. However, the results of early elections to the Parliament and the current coalition auctions show that this does not happen. Will remain two centers of decision-making – Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk. They say the course for NATO membership. This strengthens Putin’s desire to stop the war. According to experts, the war in the Donbas can last for 10 years.
Why call this term?
– Putin have 10 thousand tanks older versions, which do not mind. They were to do 25 years in the Siberian hangars. Privately know Russians moved through the so-called humanitarian convoy trainers and created a base for tank drivers, gunners with a population of Donbass.
Now the main threat – Offensive Russian tank army. Secondly – Reducing Ukrainian reserves. In an extreme point in the financial sector will start to panic. All they want to take out at least the remains of his fortune abroad. Just at this moment the Kremlin will signal the expansion of offensive action.
Ukrainian authorities are aware of these dangers?
– Poroshenko understand them. This is evidenced by his recent statements, nervousness behavior. When Russian troops will go to Berdyansk and Crimea, investors will leave Ukraine. The economy may come to an end.
When Russian troops reach the Crimea, Odessa – will have a country within the borders of the Ukrainian People’s Republic in 1918. In this case become problematic country in Europe with the prospect remain so for decades.
This “apocalypse” can resist?
– It is necessary to search for the optimal political platform normalization of relations with Russia.
In addition to military threats, there are also economic. Why still do not see reform?
– You have to abandon fruitless and extensive discussions on lustration, and fight corruption. Dismiss all implicated in it. The government should declare priority renewal of the country. I look for honest people who work for the state, society, and not to his own pocket.
What is the deal with bankers Rates Course 15-16 per dollar?
– It’s – inevitable. If the economy – is not applicable, the currency here “flee” and the dollar will grow. Population zubozhityme.
16 – is not the limit?
– Unfortunately, no. In the coming months, the fever will continue. The Government has clearly set public goals: peace, the fight against corruption, reform and normalization of relations with Russia.
5 programs for different parties wrote Sergei Tolstov. Which, does not speak.
Ran for MPs
Sergei Tolstov born in Kiev. Father Valerian – engineer. After World War II earned painting in Leningrad, now – St. Petersburg. Mother Tatiana – physician cardiologist.
1977 graduated from the historical faculty of Kiev University. Shevchenko. Then – graduate school. Five years teaching there at the Faculty of International Relations and International Law. 1992 became a Fellow of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the National Academy of Sciences. Docent. Trained at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
1994 ran for MPs from the Constitutional Democratic Party. As the Council has failed. Past 13 years, is director of the Institute of Policy Analysis and International Studies.
– I love to vacation in the Crimea. In his youth through the peninsula completely, – says. – Consider the annexation of the peninsula personal loss. In Europe I travel often. Already at the embassy feel attitude towards us.
He is married. Foster’s daughter, 14-year-old Mary.