The budget process in our country usually jammed. December is over, and only now parliamentarians finally got to the state treasury in 2015.
However, Parliament refused to vote for the budget “wheel”, and moved its adoption on 30 December. During this time the main financial document should be finalized and submitted to the deputies for approval.
The only question is how realistic plans will be to fill state coffers?
The first draft budget for 2015 came in September. Even then, he largely looked utopia.
First, a significant increase in the revenue side. If the 2014 revenue plan is 377.8 billion UAH, for 2015 laid 432.4 billion UAH, which is 14.5% more.
Second, the rising costs of 441.6 billion UAH to 485.3 billion UAH (ie almost 10%).
However, the document submitted to parliament now seems an absolute mockery. Thus, budget revenues next year should reach 475.2 billion UAH (about 100 billion difference from 2014), and the costs – fantastic. UAH 527.2 billion (an increase of more than 19%). But who will finance these costs?
Of course, the government relies on tax revenues. Their sum in the structure of the budget is 365 billion, which is 65 billion more than the target in 2014
This meeting of the income tax to the extent provided for natural persons, which is 3.5 times higher than the plan in 2014 – about 43 billion UAH.
Revenues from value added tax, according to expectations, will be about 156 billion UAH (plan for 2014 – about 150 billion UAH) and income tax – about 75 billion UAH (planned for 2014 – about 55 billion UAH).
This indirectly indicates that the Cabinet still expects the fall session of the Tax Code, which, in particular, will cause an increase in the tax burden on individuals, fighting minimizing the tax base for income tax and the so-called “pits” on VAT and fictitious tax refund.
All is good, but the success of a sudden and radical reform of the tax system under the big question. As is known, the government innovations in the tax code caused very great resistance, as in the relevant committee and in businesses. Therefore, it is unclear what guided the developers of the budget, building on its mythical figures.
But what more tax revenues may be involved, even if the Cabinet admit that the fall in GDP in 2015 will be 4.3%, and inflation reached 13%, which is eloquent sign of further deterioration in business and minimize purchasing power.
No less optimistic looks and power to limit the budget deficit. So, if in 2014 it was planned in the amount of 68.6 billion UAH, in 2015 will be … only 63.7 billion UAH. Only 3.7% of GDP, which was not even in the best years.
Certainly it is to achieve these values slightly as considering external borrowing and debt “Naftogaz Ukraine” of $ 100 billion (which, incidentally, recognizes even the prime Yatsenyuk), the actual deficit several times larger. And by the way, Draft Budget 2015 offers the restructuring of the gas scenario “vysyaka.” In addition, the document provides fanning it is 31.5 billion by issuing bonds internal treasury bonds.
By the way, direct government debt by the end of 2015 could reach 1 trillion 176 billion UAH (for information: in November 2014 total public debt went beyond 945 billion UAH). Some simple calculations give an impressive figure – about 70% of GDP, which is almost critical value, bringing the country to default.
Moreover, our new attractions for 2015 will amount to 293 billion UAH, of which 180 billion – external debt (obviously, it is the money the IMF and other international lenders) and 113 billion UAH – internal (ie, actually pumping Treasury “wrappers “what are government bonds).
The amount of the planned state guarantees of 25 billion UAH, as in 2014 and the National Bank will list for the year in the budget UAH 65.4 billion (in 2014 -22.8 billion UAH). From privatization authority intends to 17 billion UAH, a similar 2014. But even this figure seems unrealistic, because in 6 months privatization receipts amounted to only UAH 61.5 million, or 0.3% of the plan.
The growth of social standards also can be expected. Moreover, they are almost to the end of the year actually freeze. The subsistence minimum per person will be in January-November 2015 1176 UAH (in 2014), and in December will increase to 1330 UAH. The minimum wage will be UAH 1218 (January-November 2015) and 1378 UAH, respectively (from December 2015).
Cabinet is trying to justify his irrepressible appetite for next year that 30% of the cost will go for defense purposes and to finance debt amount is due to the devaluation of the hryvnia has increased by more than 50%. In addition, the 2015 budget laid the course of 17 UAH / UAH. Accordingly, the government will have to return the money, based on the current exchange rate realities.
However, waste officials still going a lot. Thus, the cost of the apparatus of the Verkhovna Rada will make 525 million UAH. At the State Department affairs allocate nearly 1 billion. Estimates of the State Judicial Administration is about 4 billion, the General Prosecutor’s Office – 3.86 billion UAH. MIA budget increase in 2015 from 17.9 billion to 32.6 billion UAH (although in the September version of the budget expenditure on police Valiant was more modest – 22.6 billion). This is a new item of expenditure – the National Guard, which is ready to allocate about 7.1 billion UAH. However, whether justified this figure, deputies, of course, silent.
But the cost of the Ministry of Energy and Mines (despite the energy crisis in the country) will be reduced by several times – to 1.9 billion. Minister’s get a little more than 2014 -1.5 billion UAH. But the costs of the Ministry of Defence will increase significantly – by as much as 25 billion.
Ministry of Health will provide about 6.6 billion, which is 22% less funding in 2014 and the question arises: how the newly appointed minister plans to conduct reform his ministry with such cuts cash flow?
Ministry of Infrastructure receives only 3.3 billion, the State Fiscal Service expects 5.1 billion budget, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Food allocate 3.8 times less money than in 2014 – 1.7 billion. However, the most significant amount painted on the Ministry of Social Affairs – almost 98 billion. Since it UAH 5.8 billion will be spent on the unit ministry, and 91 billion UAH – in support of the Pension Fund.
To implement various programs related to reforms, reconstruction, modernization of the state in 2015 is going to attract a special fund budget about UAH 14.2 billion of funds from foreign creditors. It is twice more than in the previous 2014.
Obviously, filling the state treasury will be difficult. For example, you can expect a significant increase in revenue if the budget revenue in January-November 2014 were 6.8% less than planned? So, on the basis of 2014 will also be a significant shortfall.
Reducing costs for many ministries and at the same time inflating costs for social programs – is another indicator of inefficient use of resources. For example, instead of having to carry out pension reform, the government continues to pour tens of billions to patch up holes Pension Fund, thus inflating the expenditure side of the budget.
At the same time, the government is very necessary to enlist the support of international donors to come out from 2015 even with the economic downturn, but certainly not in default. So hastily attempt to present the budget in the most “optimistic” view. And then it gradually during the year perekroyuvatymut and hold hidden sequestration. That, however, happened in 2014.