Counting money in the pockets of others has always been not very respectable occupation. However, even the expert community must periodically carry out measurements in Ukrainian purses and make predictions hudnutymut them in the future or, alternatively, tovstishatymut. Unfortunately, data obtained during the next round tables on the topic, not encouraging. According to head of the department of living standards of the Institute of Demography and Social Research Institute Ludmila Cherenko, falling real incomes Ukraine at the end of the year will be 20%. “This does not mean that all are equally falling revenues – says scientist – traditionally less it feels much more – the poorest. After inflationary pressure on food hits to the poor. ”

Colleague Cherenko the institute Lydia Tkachenko, speaking to different audiences, predicted that Ukraine will not be a populist budget that would unfairly distributing money to citizens. According to her, it does not allow neither the government nor the International Monetary Fund, “which is so much money we have invested.” However, experts believe that Ukraine will remain one of the poorest countries – “our well-being discarded too far.” “We have a rapidly declining population, and in particular migration losses are very large – she continues – the flow of documents from Ukrainian to move to Europe (Eurostat evidenced) increased by 10 times. And actually no longer go to work, and forever. ”

How to make Ukrainian did not go to seek his fortune abroad, and found work at home? In answering this question, experts confidently say that will help solve this problem by foreign investment. As the director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine Valery Geets, this year they will not come to Ukraine, and those that come 2015, will work and benefit only 2016. “This year – said the academician – which may start economic growth, which will be determined by the investment process.”

“But for every percent of expected GDP growth – emphasizes Heyets – should be increased investment in 2.5-3.5%, and if we want, for example, have a 5% GDP growth, you have to get 12-13% growth in investment “. “Only in these conditions there is economic growth and economic development”, – adds the director of the institute. (President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Oleksandr Okhrymenko not without bitter notes that this year, foreign investment in Ukraine first time in history were negative $ 400 million, that is, investment flow and waste). Heyets also draws attention to two factors that can affect the standard of living: it is legitimizing the economy, and the presence and fullness budget items to support the poor.

However, economist Andrei Blinov notes that, according to official statistics, the decline in real incomes for the first nine months of 2014 was about 5%. Thus GDP in dollar terms fell by 45%, while the real income of the population – 30%. But people who work in small and medium business, reduction in income, according to the economist, “is at times.”

Heyets believes that lost in the living standards of most of those who as consumers focused on imported goods, and those who buy domestically produced goods, inflation not much affected.

Blinov also notes that one can not expect that the fall of the hryvnia has reached a possible bottom. “At the current variable rate we have a negative balance of trade in goods and services. This is one of the main factors which show that in the absence of investment depreciation will “- insists expert.

“The welfare state is dead – quoted statement of the Dutch monarch politician, chairman of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Kost Bondarenko. – People in the prosperous European country honestly say that I have forgotten and should be discontinued funding a number of social projects, increased taxes, etc. “. “We say it is not soon – predicts analyst – in this country is not customary to speak the truth, especially before elections. Even against the backdrop of turmoil, we promise that all of us will be good to be better. “With reference to sociological research, expert presents data on the social health of the population. He said that over the past 10 years, approximately 3-4% of people said that their lives over the past few months, much worse. And about the same (2-3%) of respondents indicated improvement in life. Now, 8.9% say their lives are much worse, and only 1% indicate a significant improvement in life. “This is a subjective assessment, but they also need to pay attention – emphasizes Bondarenko. – They show the real state of life.”

Executive Director of blazer Oleg Ustenko tried to show the way out of our country from economic crisis. But talk of a possible use in Ukraine new Marshall Plan, he rejects. According to him, Ukraine understand it this way: let’s get the money, which will block the budget deficit, and then “vyrulyuvatymemo our economy.” “I’m afraid that in this interpretation of Marshall Plan for Ukraine will not be accepted by the West, and the upcoming donors’ conference for Ukraine will lead to a stalemate,” – said the expert.

He believes that the budget 2015 will be for Ukraine and its new parliament a kind of test of populism and confident that our country is a potential that can and must develop to equalize the situation. More than 50% of GDP is allocated through the budget, which is a huge hole. One of them – “Naftogaz Ukraine”. To solve this problem, according to experts, is to launch a mechanism of social protection. He was confident that the donors’ conference this will give the necessary funds. You can then raise rates and eliminate the deficit “Naftogaz”, reducing it and budget deficit.

“The population at the same time – said Ustenko – not affected. It is necessary to make sure that did not have anywhere to go, the state itself has to transfer money from one pocket to the second. “The expert also says that the world will gladly give money to fight corruption, to deregulation. “Anything that interferes with work, is considered unfriendly towards business – he says – and has vidsikatysya and destroyed, and bureaucrat loses the opportunity to work in the field of corruption.” And this, as well as the improvement of the judicial system, and even the international community businesses give money, says Ustenko. “But do not expect that the donor conference can get billions out of the impasse Ukraine – knowingly persuades expert. – In the West, there is a clear understanding that we have a corrupt country. We have always been on this indicator in the tail of the list.”

“But there is a question of political will. Is it strong to carry out the changes in the country? – Asks the expert and shares his concerns: – I am afraid that there are huge risks of budget deficit monetization. It’s just terrible. Unemployment rate by ILO methodology at the end of this year could be about 9%, and in the eastern regions can be doubled.”
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