As the Ukrainian economy will move from the Russian market for European, it will have to go through severe trials that not all stand area. This was told by senior US economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Anders Aslund.
The first “victim” will be, in his opinion, the chemical industry, the bulk of which is controlled by billionaire Dmitry Firtash. The basis of the prosperity of the industry has always been cheap Russian gas. The inevitable price increase it will lead to the extinction of chemical industry, says Aslund.
Last year the company Firtash bought gas from Russia for $ 220 for 1 thousand. Cu. If you buy gas at a low cost chemical industry enterprises will not have to raise prices for their products – chemical fertilizers. Effectively compete on price, they will not, because these companies – old.
“If cheap gas from Russia will not, they need to be modernized. But KhimProm still unlikely to survive,” – says Aslund.
Cheerful prospect he draws the steel industry, it will survive and develop, which are all conditions – coal, ore, industrial culture, engineers and seaports. In addition, this area has been carried out some modernyrzatsyya.
“The two plants are upgraded – Interpipe Steel Victor Pinchuk in Dnepropetrovsk – it consumes very little power and Steel Works Corporation Industrial Union of Donbass (owner – Sergei Taruta) Alchevsk – said Aslund. – Akhmetov realized that it makes no sense to upgrade plants while gas prices low. If the price increase, Akhmetov also modernize their plants. ”
At issue, according to the economist, now is the future of Ukrainian engineering because Ukrainian military-industrial complex, which accounted for a significant portion of the industry, has always been deeply integrated into the Russian defense industry.
“If you look at the export of Ukraine, 35% of exports – is engineering. Almost all – weapons, but not complete, and components – said Aslund. – I do not know what will happen with this, but I think that any good.”
Among the niches that Ukraine may take the structure of the European economy, the most promising Aslund considers agriculture. “This year in Ukraine will be the largest crop in history, despite the fact that there is a war,” – he said.
The expert believes that Ukraine may follow the path of Denmark, which was originally developed as an agricultural country, and then based on agriculture developed other industries.
Industry №2 Aslund considers Ukraine IT-sector – Ukrainian programmers and engineers become an important source of income for the country.
This economist believes that in the near future Ukraine could rely on foreign investment. “The European market is now open. It is difficult to say what will happen in Ukraine, but it will definitely be modern industry and manufacturing.”
According to Aslund, in 2015 Ukraine need $ 15-20 billion in additional funding in addition to the money the IMF. The money will come from the EU, the US and some from Japan, he said.
“But it (help – Ed.) Will not if Ukraine starts to do something on their own” – warns economist.
Late last year, Anders Aslund described the most probable scenarios of Ukrainian economy. In the pessimistic forecast – collapse of the hryvnia to 45 UAH per dollar, inflation at 100%, no international financial assistance of the IMF, chaos and invasion of Russia. A good option he considers a short recession, and then – the rapid growth of about 6% a year.