Tomorrow interbank currency will start working on the new rules: National Bank refuses indicative rate. PravdaUA asked the bankers, as this will affect the rate.
The refusal of an indicative rate of the National Bank head Valery Hontaryeva announced Monday at a meeting with the managers of 40 major banks. “We support the transition to market exchange rate mechanisms – quoting the press service of the NBU Hontaryevu. – We also want to market and was the only effective course».
Hypothetically, this means that banks will not simulate trading in 16 per dollar, official and unofficial rates on interbank align, the official rate of the National Bank comes in line with the market, exchange offices of banks exhibit a rate close to reality. So whether it really?
We have asked for clarification of the NBU, but was told that they could only provide comments on Thursday.
Bankers also not yet received any clarification on the new rules of the interbank market. They agreed to express their expectations from this decision only anonymously. Gontareva last week personally asked to be cautious in the statements of course.
On Monday, the NBU had a weekly meeting with representatives of the banks. It was reported that on Thursday canceled indicative. Regarding the question remains open auctions. NBU has not yet provided any regulatory framework is therefore speculate on the coffee grounds. Probably days NBU raise the official rate to the level of the interbank market. It is expected to increase in the interbank market quotations of 24-25 per dollar. Now all market participants are waiting for some documents from the regulator.
Spread the black market will shrink to attract more customers. Will the black market less? Do not forget acting 2% PF tax when buying foreign currency through the bank and a limit of 3000 USD per client. Quotes to banks are within the market and most of the clients immediately run to buy foreign currency, which will push up the course again. Count on the fact that exporters will start in large quantities revenue, is not worth it, many banks have a pent-up demand, which necessarily shoot.
In theory, Thursday banks will establish commercial rate based on the interbank market quotations.
If the market does not restrict, for example, calls, etc., the rate may reach the level of 22-23 hryvnia per dollar. What is the real effect of this regime will be seen.
We NBU nothing in detail explained by prohovoreno only general principles. Waiting resolution or letter.
My feeling – easier to live will not. Definitely dollar grows. The consensus forecast of the bankers with whom I talk, the dollar will cost 20-21 hryvnia.
When holding a course and then let go – he first shoots, then rolled back. Then comes stabilization. Such a scenario we can see.
There is pent-up demand for the dollar. There is a risk that after the notice of all courses in one, importers will exhibit all their applications. While the dollar has grown. But if exporters will hide less foreign exchange earnings and will lead it in Ukraine, there will be more and sellers rate may be reduced. And for importers rate may be too high and uneconomical for their operations. Narrowing demand from importers and exporters of increased supply will enable to strengthen the hryvnia.
Technically banks with a single rate would work much easier, but we must understand that with the growth rate exacerbated old problems. For example, the problem of foreign currency loans and doformuvaty need large amounts of reserves for foreign currency loans.
NBU wants to do one course to remove the black market. The idea is correct, but realized it would, I think, by 30-40%. The first thing to remove the agent exchangers to control all cash transactions. These points – the intermediary between the banks and the black market. Removing it, we reduce the black market. National Bank has announced its desire to get rid of “agents”.
Black market anywhere from Thursday here to stay. It closes when US banks will be more than the black market. But banks are not brought dollar, and do not forget the 2% PF tax.
After the abolition of the indicative rate Gontareva should decide on the position of the NBU redemption comes across the country currency, which is about $ 5 billion a month. Gontareva last week discussed the initiative with the banks, but not yet confirmed it.
Hidden export revenues will not return to Ukraine – there is no trust. Exporters contracting outside Ukraine.
We got to a point of balance – 21 hryvnia. If Hontaryeva feel sufficient strength – it will drive the rate to 17 USD. So he laid in the budget.
Alexander Acorn, an economist at the International Centre for Policy Studies
Moving to a single year – a positive for the economy. This should further boost earnings start exporters, importers have the opportunity to buy the currency on transparent conditions. This should remove the possibility of corruption on income from exchange rate difference.
It is likely that with the rejection of the indicative rate will be announced and that we will receive additional funding from the IMF. This will signal to the market that the NBU will be additional opportunities for intervention.
You can not say that the rate may stay at 21-22 UAH, so the change in currency supply.
I think the NBU has agreed with commercial banks that are not thrown all their applications on the interbank market (there is pent-up demand) and presenting them gradually – over several weeks.
I do not think that the NBU will change the formula for determining the official rate. Today we set a course for the results of trading at 14:00, he will continue to be set as follows. In the coming days official rate continues to weaken.
Bank exchangers must also tighten rates to market. The volume of black market have significantly reduced.
It is possible that six months later, when the heating season and decrease the price of gas, and may grow export revenues in the summer months, which usually happens – the situation is stabilized.